A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. They writes two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has got important lessons to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
